Saturday, September 30, 2000

Autumn brings sailboats, storms


By PAT KELLY

Herald Staff Writer



Autumn may mean cool temperatures, colorful foliage and raked leaves in other parts of the country, but the minds of Manatee residents turn to two other pursuits in the fall: keeping an eye out for hurricanes and preparing for sailing season.

While many weather watchers around the country view autumn through a colorful leaf-scape of burnished siennas, sunfire yellows and deep purplish reds, the fall memories of gulf coast residents are more likely colored in dazzling sunlit blues behind a billowing white sail, or the gray and darkening skies of an approaching hurricane.

Those skies have been busy lately. Tropical Storm Keith formed in the northwest Caribbean on Friday, as Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce continued to swirl far out in the Atlantic.

Temperatures are dropping around the Manatee area through the next several days - overnight lows in the high 60s and daytime highs in the mid 80s - but the dip in heat and the dryer air means residents will more likely reach for a bow line than a sweater.

"You're getting away from the summer heat," said Marc Modisett, captain of Captain's Marina, Holmes Beach. "As the temperatures cool down, you'll see people wanting to get out there (in their sailboats) more and more."

The five-day forecast for the Manatee area calls for mild temperatures and scattered showers through Sunday, moving toward a clearing trend with sunny skies and dry air by Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.

"When the weather turns cooler and the fronts start moving in, this is the time when people start doing more and more sailing," said Jack MacDougall, sales manager at Bradenton Beach Marina. "We are not at the peak yet. But we are getting close, about a month away. We are seeing an upswing at this point, but we're still in the teeth of the hurricane season."

Although enthusiasts may be getting a gleam in their eye at the prospect of raising sails, the current hurricane season is not far from their minds.

Florida so far has dodged several bullets in the form of wind-stomping storms - most notably Hurricane Gordon, which slipped by to the west of Manatee County two weeks ago before making a weak landfall - but there are still several potentially dangerous storms brewing in Atlantic and Caribbean waters.

Tropical Storm Keith swirled to life Friday in the northwest Caribbean from a depression that has been soaking much of Central America. It was drifting to the northwest and could become a hurricane today, forecasters said.

''The biggest threat is for northeastern Mexico,'' said Eric Blake, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ''Right now, there's a hurricane watch along the east of Yucatan from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.''

Its top winds, just 35 mph earlier Friday, were up to 50 mph, well over the threshold of 39 mph at which it became a tropical storm.

''We expect intensification,'' Blake said. ''It could become a hurricane over the next couple of days, but it's too early to tell whether it'll be a threat to the United States.''

Nervous emergency managers in southwest Florida were already eyeing the developing storm.

''It is only about 600 miles away . . . and poses a definite threat to southwest Florida over the next week,'' said a statement issued by Collier County officials in Naples. ''Any acceleration would obviously reduce our response time, and intensification increases the threat.''

Meanwhile, Joyce weakened into a tropical storm Friday and kept losing steam, with top sustained winds of 60 mph.

But Joyce continued a steady march westward across the Atlantic and residents in the Lesser Antilles were reminded to watch its progress.

''It could very well become a hurricane again,'' said Robert Molleda, a meteorologist at the center. ''It's right at that threshold.''

At 11 p.m. EDT, Joyce was centered near 10.5 north latitude, 53.0 west longitude, about 480 miles east-southeast of Barbados in the Windward Islands. It was moving west at about 15 mph.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaac's top sustained winds dropped back to 105 mph as it continued moving across an open sea, a threat only to shipping.

At 11 p.m. EDT, Isaac was near 35.4 north latitude, 54.1 west longitude, about 1,410 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores Islands. Isaac had top winds down to 100 mph and was expected to get weaker today.

In the meantime, the cooler air means sailing weather for many boating enthusiasts.

The summer heat can dissuade some Gulf residents from hoisting their sails, Modisett said, because many of the vessels don't have the Bimini tops sported by power boats.

But as the weather cools, "It's kind of the start of the season," he said.


Pat Kelly, Herald staff reporter, can be reached at 745-7079 or at pkelly@bradentonherald.com




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