Saturday, August 5, 2000

You can call me Al: First storm forms
Tropical Storm Alberto forms in eastern Atlantic Ocean

HERALD WIRE REPORTS



Storm names for 2000 hurricane season

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Keith
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William


The Weather Channel: http://www.weather.com

BayNews9: http://www.baynews9.com

We can no longer be in denial: Hurricane season is here. The first named storm of the season formed Friday in the distant Atlantic Ocean and intensified rapidly.

At 11 p.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Alberto was centered about 235 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands - at 13.4 north latitude, 27.5 west longitude, or about 2,930 miles southeast of Florida.

Forecasters expect the system to grow into a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph by today or Sunday and continue moving in a west, northwest direction for the next three days.

The storm's top sustained winds grew to 65 mph late Friday, up from 40 mph a few hours earlier.

The tropical storm force winds were extending 70 miles from the center and were expected to strengthen over the next day, according to Lixion Avila, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Avila said the storm could reach the vicinity of Puerto Rico by late next week if it does not disintegrate or change course.

''But many things could happen between now and then,'' he said. ''It is difficult to get a handle on right now.

''I would not be surprised if the forecast has to be reversed to a weakening trend or steady state, as indicated by some global models.''

Frank Lepore, hurricane center spokesman, said 2000 is shaping up as a typical hurricane season. On average, 1.4 hurricanes form in the Atlantic in August, he said. September is the busiest month, with an average of 2.2 hurricanes.

James Lushine, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, said late starting seasons could mean trouble for south Florida.

During the last 60 years, the first storm formed in August or September in 14 seasons, Lushine said.

In six of those seasons, or 43 percent of the time, a tropical storm or hurricane affected south Florida, he said.

''The bottom line is, with a late-starting season, there's certainly no reason to think we're not going to have a hurricane in south Florida,'' he said. ''So people should be doing things to prepare, as they should have been doing June 1.''

Hurricane forecaster William Gray said earlier this week that the 2000 season will not be as bad as he first predicted.

Data received since the official start of the season have convinced Gray there will be 11 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

He said cooler Atlantic Ocean surface water temperatures and a weakening La Nina are responsible for the declining threat. The season still will be busier than the average of 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 major hurricanes.

The late onset of storms is not a factor in his decision to revise his forecast, Gray said.




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