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Researchers study storm evacuation behavior The results may help predict exactly how many will heed future hurricane warnings. By KEVIN HORAN Herald Staff Writer
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TAMPA - When Hurricane Floyd rumbled westward across the Atlantic Ocean last September, it appeared headed for a direct hit on Florida's eastern coast. The storm, nearly as strong as 1992's Hurricane Andrew and four times its size, seemed destined to obliterate thousands of homes and businesses. It veered away, but not before sending some 2.2 million scurrying for safer grounds, almost twice what officials expected. A year later, researchers continue to study whether people decided to duck out because of a real potential for harm or a real fear based on perceptions. And they continue to wonder how that plays into preparation for any future storms. "You cannot even begin a hurricane evacuation study without first doing psychological studies," said Frank Koutnik, an administrator with the state's Division of Emergency Management. "They tell us how many people will actually hit the roads. They tell us where people will go to find shelter," Koutnik said Thursday during the 14th-Annual Governor's Hurricane Conference. Looking for better ways to prepare for the state's six-month hurricane season, which kicks off Thursday, emergency management leaders around Florida have turned to studying the realities of tropical storm dangers versus the myths that people perceive, with an eye on a host of social factors, as well. Researchers try to learn why people evacuate, when they decide to leave a dangerous area, where they go when they do and much more. The answers they gather shape plans on a wide range of storm-related issues, from shelter openings to writing public announcements. And what they find continues to raise a few eyebrows. When Floyd rolled toward Florida, emergency planners issued evacuation orders up and down the state's eastern shore. They expected about 1.2 million residents and visitors to leave flood-prone areas, mobile homes and other dangerous sites. Roughly a million more than predicted took to the pavement, looking for safe ground. Blame part of the overflow on how people hear about a storm's danger, said Walter Peacock, a co-director at the Florida International University's International Hurricane Center. By and large, people fled if authorities told them to do so, Peacock said. They also left if a family member told them to, or if they heard about evacuating in person, he added. Blame another chunk on social circumstances. Families with young children left in the face of the storm's threat, Peacock said, as did those living in multi-unit housing. People with higher incomes also left in larger numbers, he added, but possibly because they had the financial means to do so. Don't blame the exodus on experience. People who had lived through any other hurricane tended to stay put, Peacock said, as did the senior population and residents who had long-standing roots in a community. Location also played a part, as intuition would suggest, but not the role expected. Floyd chased about 13 percent of the state out of their homes or hotels. But just 6 percent of the people in the state's southeastern corner left, compared to 41 percent in the northeast. Of the southeastern evacuees, most didn't go far. Fully three of four stayed in Miami-Dade or Broward county. Northeastern evacuees, on the contrary, didn't stick around. Only three of every 100 stayed in the area, with more than eight in 10 leaving for the Panhandle or Georgia. And, more and more, the evacuees head to places planners hadn't predicted. During Floyd's run, public shelters saw only about half the people that leaders had planned for, said Jay Baker, a geography professor and behavioral scientist at Florida State University. That drop, at least, had followed a recent trend. "Over time," Baker said, "there appears to be a decrease in the percentage of people nationwide who depend on public shelters." More and more, evacuees stay with family or friends or head to hotels, Baker's data show. In an ideal world, that falls right into the thinking of emergency managers. The nightmare scenario has large blocks of people stuck in traffic as a storm reaches the state, said Laurie Feagans, Manatee County's emergency management chief. Better they find a safe place to ride the storm out. Fully 90 percent of the homes in the Suncoast area lack protection to stand up to a big storm's fury. A unified building code, with strengthened standards, will help new construction projects, leaders note. And rework projects, like adding shutters or plywood covering when storms approach or bracing roofs and walls, will help existing buildings, they add. But the biggest thing, the piece to the puzzle emergency crews continue to work on with the research, will come in planning. Find out before the storms come whether your home or business sits in an evacuation area, officials say. Check to see if your home has what it takes to brace the storms. If not, find a safe place to stay with friends or family, or the nearest shelter. Put together a hurricane kit, full of foods, medicines and more to take with you. Plan where to park the pet for the storm's duration. A little planning on the personal front will make planning a little easier - and safer - for everyone, including the planners turning to psychological studies for clues. "What if that storm comes and you haven't planned?" Feagans said. "You've jeopardized everything you love - your family, your pets, your house. Is it worth it?"
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